Trump’s 2016 Showing Was the Most Important Factor in 2018 House Races

Not long after the November 2017 elections, I had lunch with David Petts, a Democratic pollster and longtime veteran of congressional campaigns. He remarked that the Republican gubernatorial candidates in Virginia and New Jersey performed within one to four points of President Trump in every congressional district in the state. […] Read more »

As Long as Trump Is President, Blue Texas Could Actually Happen

Enthusiastic Democrats can often be heard talking about how Texas is turning purple and maybe even blue. Professional strategists have mostly scoffed at this idea — after all, Donald Trump won Texas by more than 800,000 votes in 2016. But if President Trump decides to seek a second term — […] Read more »

Weak Spots in Democrats’ Strong Midterm Results Point to Challenges in 2020

Democrats had a great showing in the 2018 midterm elections. But even in such a strong year, they sometimes struggled to match their traditional support in electorally significant areas — with serious implications for 2020. Their triumph was a somewhat narrow one, concentrated in well-educated, affluent communities. Over all, the […] Read more »