The prevailing wisdom suggests that there will be a Democratic wave election in 2018. In a manner that suggests that little was learned from the 2016 primary or general elections, pundits and analysts seem so committed to this narrative that they promote it even when the data point in the […] Read more »
Previewing Base Voter Messaging for the 2018 Elections
Both major U.S. political parties recently held party conferences planning their strategies for the 2018 campaign. The stakes are high: control of the U.S. House of Representatives and, possibly, the U.S. Senate, as well as two-thirds of all state governorships. … Given the political parties’ limited time and resources, to […] Read more »
Why the Gun Issue Has Shifted (It’s Not What You Think)
The gun debate has shifted dramatically. Suddenly, it looks as if the issue will benefit Democrats in November, not Republicans. The reason for the shift doesn’t rest primarily on the intelligence and commitment of the students of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, although many of them have […] Read more »
The States Where Democrats Are Overperforming Most — And Least — In Special Elections
… Special election results so far this cycle are among the clearest portents of a Democratic wave in November. Democrats are beating their usual percentages of the vote not only in special federal elections (i.e., for the U.S. Senate and House), but also in special state legislative elections. … But […] Read more »
How Things Could Go Wrong For Republicans In Mississippi’s New Senate Race
On Monday afternoon, Sen. Thad Cochran, the first Republican in over a century to win a statewide race in Mississippi and the longest-serving member currently in Congress, announced he would resign from office on April 1. The news wasn’t unexpected — Cochran’s worsening health began stirring up rumors of resignation […] Read more »
Politics Podcast: Does Trump’s Mood Matter?
The Trump administration is coming off of a week of (seemingly) ad hoc policy announcements and a high-profile staff departure. So the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team discusses how the Trump administration makes decisions and whether we learned anything from the past week. FiveThirtyEight’s Perry Bacon Jr. joins the crew to […] Read more »