The House generic ballot, a national polling question that gauges voter intentions in the House vote, often fluctuates a lot from poll to poll. For instance, a poll that is highly rated by FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings, Monmouth University, fluctuated from a 15-point Democratic lead in December 2017 to a two-point […] Read more »
A poll shows Republicans pulling even in congressional races. That’s not the whole story.
CNN is justifiably hyped about its new poll offering a surprising assessment of this November’s congressional races. “Democrats’ 2018 advantage is nearly gone,” its article about the poll trumpets, a function of the mostly erased gap between the Democrats and the Republicans on the generic-ballot question (that is, asking respondents […] Read more »
Democrats in Rust Belt: Stay Close to Trump, but Not Too Close
A day after the first major primary contests of 2018, the political armies on the left and the right repositioned themselves for an intense general election across Rust Belt states that President Trump carried two years ago — and where his personality and record will define the battles leading to […] Read more »
Double-digit gender gap on sexual harassment in 2018 vote
Women voters are significantly more likely than male voters to say sexual harassment will be important to their vote for Congress this year, according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS released on Wednesday. CONT. Grace Sparks, CNN Read more »
The Eroding GOP Resistance to Trump’s Immigration Agenda
The results of Tuesday’s primary elections simultaneously bolstered the Republican Party mainstream and demonstrated how much ground it has yielded to Donald Trump, particularly on the volatile issue of immigration. In several key races, GOP primary voters rejected candidates who presented themselves as the most ardent acolytes of Trump, in […] Read more »
The connection that may decide 2018 isn’t what you think
In Washington, the burning debate is whether any of the legal challenges swirling around President Donald Trump will directly connect him to a criminal act. But the Democratic hopes of retaking the House, the Senate or both could pivot on whether the party can complete a very different connection: linking […] Read more »