Democrats have to be happy and relieved by the results of Tuesday’s primaries: they appear to have avoided getting “locked out” of California’s top-two primaries, advancing candidates to the November ballot in all of the seven GOP seats they’re targeting (although in several districts, they didn’t avert catastrophe by much). […] Read more »
How to Define a Wave
… So, what is a ‘wave’ election? And, how will we know if we are in one — or even in November, that we actually had one? To be clear, anything other than flipping control of the House this fall will be a disaster for Democrats. Even if they win […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Democrats gain in congressional vote test
With five months until Election Day, Democrats hold the enthusiasm advantage — and that puts them ahead of Republicans in the congressional vote as well. A Fox News poll released Thursday finds 48 percent of voters favor the Democratic candidate in their congressional district and 39 percent the Republican. That […] Read more »
More Americans are crediting Trump with the stronger economy, but that isn’t helping the GOP with voters: NBC/WSJ poll
Rising satisfaction with the American economy has lifted President Donald Trump, but not the Republican campaign to hold Congress in fall midterm elections. That’s the message of the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, which measures how sustained economic strength affects the president and his party. The impacts are markedly […] Read more »
NBC/WSJ Poll: Trump’s support has gotten deeper — but not broader
So in the new NBC/WSJ poll, how do you reconcile President Trump’s job approval rating ticking up to 44 percent among registered voters (up from 40 percent in April) — with Democrats expanding their lead in congressional preference to 10 points? Our answer: Trump’s support is deeper with key Trump/GOP […] Read more »
Democrats Seem to Pass the Top-Two Test
While final results will not be available for weeks, Democrats appear poised to advance candidates to the general election in all of their targeted races in California. Based on a seat-by-seat analysis of House targets, we have thought the Democrats needed to squeeze an additional five seats or so from […] Read more »