For decades, running as an incumbent was undoubtedly a huge advantage in electoral politics. As recently as 20 years ago, holding office added an average of 8 percentage points to a candidate’s margin. But in this century, experts say, the incumbency advantage has significantly diminished. Now the verdict is in […] Read more »
Are White Evangelicals the Saviors of the GOP?
Amid all the talk about shifting demographics and political changes over the last decade, one key voting group has remained virtually unchanged: white evangelicals. According to one evangelical leader, a record number of white evangelicals voted in the 2018 midterms after an inspired turnout effort. … But since turnout was […] Read more »
Republicans in Wisconsin and Michigan Aim to Hobble Incoming Democrats
In both Wisconsin and Michigan, Democrats followed a similar formula last month to win the governorship and other key statewide offices: big turnout in urban centers and gains in white-collar suburbs. But in each state, Republican dominance of small-town and rural communities—reinforced by a highly partisan gerrymander of legislative district […] Read more »
Where Republicans, Democrats Stand Heading Into 2019
As we enter a two-year presidential cycle, the parties stand at very different places. Republicans appear unified behind President Donald Trump, while Democrats are about to begin a contest for a 2020 nominee that will inevitably degenerate into Democrats attacking Democrats. But while the GOP is unified, the party just […] Read more »
Trump to the rescue? Presidential campaigning and the 2018 U.S. Senate elections
“If I didn’t do those stops we would definitely not have control of the Senate. It would be a question, so what are we up, three? Two or three. We would be down five or six or seven. And they know that. Nobody has ever had a greater impact.” — President […] Read more »
North Carolina Republicans Targeted Voter Fraud. Did They Look at the Wrong Kind?
It was a triumphant moment for North Carolina Republicans in 2013 when they enacted one of the nation’s most aggressive voter-identification laws. The measure would combat voter fraud, they argued — though, as federal courts later ruled, it would almost certainly reduce African-American Democratic turnout. At the same time, the […] Read more »