What are the electoral implications of Justice Anthony Kennedy’s announcement that he will retire from the Supreme Court? With about a third fewer people voting in midterm than in presidential elections, who votes and who stays home this November is especially important. On April 10, this column noted the disparity […] Read more »
The Democratic Party Hits a Fork in the Road
… Almost halfway through Donald Trump’s tempestuous first term, Democrats are divided between two visions of how they can dislodge the Republican dominance of Washington and most state governments. One camp believes the party’s best chance will come from targeting mostly white, Republican-leaning voters who are recoiling from Trump on […] Read more »
Why some polls may be underestimating Democrats
Republicans dominated the midterm elections in 2010 and 2014 in part because voters who supported Barack Obama in presidential years voted for Republicans or stayed home when he wasn’t on the ballot. The turnout advantage Republicans enjoyed during the Obama years may no longer exist as we head into 2018, […] Read more »
NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll: Most want vote on Trump Supreme Court nominee before midterms
A majority of Americans believe the Republican-led Senate should vote on President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee before the November midterm elections, undercutting the Democratic argument that it should be delayed until after the pivotal fall elections, according to a new NBC News|SurveyMonkey poll. CONT. Dartunorro Clark, NBC News Read more »
IBD/TIPP Poll: Trump Approval Jumps As Attacks From Critics Backfire
Increasingly bitter and aggressive attacks on President Trump managed to bolster his approval rating, which climbed 5 points to reach the second highest level of his presidency, the latest IBD/TIPP Poll finds. The July poll found that 41% approve of the job Trump is doing. That’s the first time he’s […] Read more »
Politics Podcast: How Conservative Can Trump’s Supreme Court Pick Be?
The political jockeying over the nomination of the next Supreme Court justice is underway. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team discusses how politicians are reacting and what the court will look like if, as seems likely, Chief Justice John Roberts winds up in the ideological middle. The team also checks in […] Read more »