Democrat Doug Jones’ victory in yesterday’s special election surprised much of the political world, and it has created ripples that will be felt until Election Day in 2018. But, as is often the tendency with upsets, “pundits” were quick to hit cable news channels to make apocalyptic predications about what […] Read more »
Republicans Shouldn’t Assume Roy Moore Was An Outlier
I’ve been covering American elections at FiveThirtyEight for almost 10 years. During that time, by far the most remarkable outcomes — of course — were Barack Obama being elected president in 2008 and Donald Trump being elected in 2016. But in third and fourth place1 were two special elections to […] Read more »
Why Turnout Shifts in Alabama Bode Well for Democrats
Over the last eight years, political analysts had come to think that Democrats were at a distinct disadvantage in midterm elections, since their younger and nonwhite coalition was less likely to turn out than older and white voters. It is time to retire that notion. Tuesday in Alabama, Democrats benefited […] Read more »
Blue Stars Fell on Alabama
Prior to the Alabama special Senate election on Tuesday night, there was an ongoing discussion in the media about whether the Republicans would lose either way in Alabama. But as bad as it would have been for Republicans to have had Roy Moore (R) in their Senate caucus, losing this […] Read more »
‘A spiritual battle:’ How Roy Moore tested white evangelical allegiance to the Republican Party
Roy Moore’s failed run for Alabama’s Senate seat tested white evangelicals’ allegiance to the Republican Party. Would they vote for a candidate who shares their conservative views on social issues even though he was accused of sexual misconduct by multiple women? Exit polls suggest they did just that, with 80 […] Read more »
‘We Are in a Trump-Driven Worst-Case Situation Right Now’
Roy Moore was a uniquely flawed and vulnerable candidate. But what should worry Republicans most about his loss to Democrat Doug Jones in Tuesday’s Alabama Senate race was how closely the result tracked with the GOP’s big defeats last month in New Jersey and Virginia—not to mention how it followed […] Read more »