Those looking for electoral drama in the 2018 cycle should pay attention to the 38 gubernatorial races being held this year and next. In our initial ratings of these contests, more than half of them — 20 of 38 — start in the competitive Toss-up or Leans Republican/Democratic categories. That […] Read more »
GA-06: Still a Toss Up as Ossoff and Handel Advance to Runoff
If you had told Democrats three months ago that first-time candidate Jon Ossoff would have taken 48 percent of the vote to advance to the GA-06 runoff against GOP former Secretary of State Karen Handel (20 percent), they would have been ecstatic. Now, after all the celebrity tweets, over $10 […] Read more »
Handicapping The Georgia 6 Special Election
If the polls are right, then Democrat Jon Ossoff will receive by far the most votes in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, which is holding a special election to replace former U.S. Rep. Tom Price on Tuesday.1 But Ossoff will probably finish with less than 50 percent of the vote, which […] Read more »
Special elections and the Trump Vote
Special elections for the Kansas 4th and Georgia 6th Congressional districts have drawn tremendous attention as harbingers of Republican and Democratic fortunes under President Trump. … A fundamental problem with focusing on these congressional seats is their small numbers which makes comparison and generalization to other districts difficult. We address […] Read more »
Forget Kansas. This chart shows why Republicans need to worry about 2018
Political Washington is in the midst of a heated debate over what — if anything — the somewhat-closer-than-expected special election in Kansas on Tuesday means for next November’s midterm elections. No matter where you come down on that question — I think there were clear warning signs for Republicans in […] Read more »
Suburban G.O.P. Voters Sour on Party, Raising Republican Fears for 2018
A gray mood has settled over conservative-leaning voters in some of the country’s most reliably Republican congressional districts, as the party’s stumbles in Washington demoralize them and leave lawmakers scrambling to energize would-be supporters in a series of off-year elections. While the next nationwide elections are not until 2018, Republicans […] Read more »