Montana likely to go Republican

Republican Gianforte leads Democrat Quist: We polled on May 11-12 and May 18-19. We saw a consistent 13 pp lead for Gianforte over Quist. With Libertarian Wicks polling at 9 percent and Unsure voters at just 5 percent, the lead appears significant and stable heading into the last week of […] Read more »

For Democrats, special elections may be preview of 2018 campaigns

Democrats are heading into the homestretch of three special elections over the next month amid a national frenzy over the investigation into the possible connections of President Trump’s 2016 campaign and Russian interference in the election. Yet in all three races, Democrats have made a tactical decision not to turn […] Read more »

Trump turmoil is spreading far beyond Washington to state and local races

As a cascade of controversies consumes the White House, anxiety is rising among Republicans well beyond the Beltway that President Trump’s troubles could take a severe toll on the party heading into next year’s midterm elections and beyond. With a near-daily string of new scandals and unfavorable headlines — including […] Read more »

Big Turnout for Ossoff Surpassed Recent Democratic Benchmarks

Jon Ossoff benefited from an unusually strong turnout in the first round of voting in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District last week, surpassing all recent benchmarks for Democratic turnout in an off-year election, according to an Upshot analysis of newly released voting data. … The election in Georgia’s Sixth is only […] Read more »