As my colleagues and I have been writing for the last few weeks, a clear “enthusiasm” gap is opening between Democrats and Republicans, with Democrats more engaged (or is it enraged?) than their GOP counterparts. We are seeing a drop in “strong” approval for President Trump as well as less […] Read more »
A Democratic Donnybrook in the Old Dominion?
With the Virginia primary less than a week away, the eyes of the political world are now focused on the Old Dominion. Considering the early polling in New Jersey’s gubernatorial general election contest, where Phil Murphy (D) starts as the favorite over Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R) after both won […] Read more »
Democrats Keep Losing, but They May Be on Track to Win
The president’s approval ratings are stuck in the upper 30s, and the party out of power typically does well in off-year elections. But so far, Democrats don’t have any big wins to show for it. … But even if the Democrats go 0 for 4, these special election results augur […] Read more »
Profound partisanship, rather than early voting, may have guaranteed Gianforte’s success amidst assault charges
The May 25th, 2017 special election for Montana’s sole U.S. House of Representatives seat took an unexpected turn on the eve of the election when Republican candidate Greg Gianforte was charged with assault for body slamming a reporter. The race between Gianforte and Democrat Rob Quist had been tightening in […] Read more »
Democrats Are Overperforming In Special Elections Almost Everywhere
Republican Greg Gianforte’s 6 percentage point win in last month’s Montana special election was just ambiguous enough that both sides could find something to like. … Luckily, however, U.S. House elections aren’t the only special elections that have taken place this year. Since Trump took office, voters have gone to […] Read more »
‘Narrowcast’ Trump? Republicans Seek Formula to Keep House Majority
In the northern suburbs of Atlanta, where what is likely to be the most expensive House campaign in history is being waged, a band of conservative advocacy groups is grappling with a question that may decide whether the Republican Party keeps its House majority after 2018: Do you run with […] Read more »