The first real electoral test of the Donald Trump era is on the horizon

For all of the attention to this year’s House of Representatives special elections, November’s gubernatorial races in New Jersey and especially Virginia will likely offer a more revealing measure of how Donald Trump’s presidency is reconfiguring the political landscape. … With his bristling nationalist message and repeated gestures toward white […] Read more »

Education Split in Alabama Primary Suggests Bumpy 2018 for GOP Senate

The impact of former judge Roy Moore’s landslide win in Alabama’s Republican Senate primary extends beyond that seat or this week’s tally of political “winners and losers.” A closer look at the election results suggests the fallout may extend into 2018 and a more fundamental remaking of the Senate GOP […] Read more »

2017 Special Elections Look Like a Wave

Pundits and campaign professionals have wrestled with whether 2018 will be a wave election or not, using metrics like President Trump’s job rating, candidate recruitment, fundraising and the four Congressional special elections in the last six months. A deeper more-local look at 2017 elections, though, show an already-building wave. Over […] Read more »

After Alabama, GOP anti-establishment wing declares all-out war in 2018

The stunning defeat of President Trump’s chosen Senate candidate in Alabama on Tuesday amounted to a political lightning strike — setting the stage for a worsening Republican civil war that could have profound effects on next year’s midterm elections and undermine Trump’s clout with his core voters. The GOP primary […] Read more »

Alabama’s Senate runoff election mirrors the national struggle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party

Thanks to a traditionalistic political culture and modern-day culture wars, public humiliation and scandal have plagued all three branches of Alabama government in the last year. In July 2016, former House Speaker Mike Hubbard was convicted and sentenced to four years in prison for felony ethics violations for soliciting money […] Read more »