The most important things we’ll learn on Election Day 2017

The governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey usually receive heightened attention because they are the first big statewide races (except for special elections) after a new president takes office. But after all the tumult of Donald Trump’s first months as president, this year’s focus is even more intense — […] Read more »

How polling methodology affects Ralph Northam’s lead in the Virginia governor’s race

Final polls show Democrat Ralph Northam holding a slight edge over Republican Ed Gillespie before Tuesday’s election for governor of Virginia. But a lot of uncertainty remains, especially given the typically low turnout in off-year elections and recent poll misfires in Virginia. Polls significantly underestimated Republican candidates in the 2013 […] Read more »

Avoiding Trump, but Adopting His Divisive Playbook: Will It Work in Virginia?

Propelled by demographic changes that are turning Virginia into an increasingly blue state and a liberal base energized by the convulsive Trump presidency, Democrats have long been favored to retain the governorship here when the state goes to the polls on Tuesday. But a racially tinged, divisive campaign by the […] Read more »