… In this piece, I hope to outline the couple of significant choices I’ve made in my House model that stand in contrast to other sites and election handicappers, and show a behind-the-curtain peek at some opportunities to improve the way we judge a race. CONT. Noah Rudnick, Sabato’s Crystal […] Read more »
Why the win for Republicans in Arizona 8 is still good for Democrats
CNN has projected that Republicans won the special election in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, but once again Democrats have overperformed in a deep red district, in another sign the national environment is in the their favor. … The result in Arizona 8 fits a pattern so far in special congressional […] Read more »
Another Special Election, Another Really Bad Sign For The GOP
One might describe Arizona’s 8th Congressional District as … nondescript. … Nor was there anything especially unusual about the candidates who competed in the special election there on Tuesday — Republican Debbie Lesko, a state senator, and Democrat Hiral Tipirneni, a doctor. And although the Republican, Lesko, is the apparent […] Read more »
Republicans Lost Support in Every Special Election Since Trump Became President
Democratic energy has been on vivid display in a series of special elections since President Trump’s inauguration, including in strongly conservative areas where Republicans usually win elections easily, like Arizona’s Eighth District. CONT. Alexander Burns & Denise Lu, New York Times Read more »
Democrats Can Win on Immigration
… In their quest to retake the House or the Senate (or both), Democrats should not shy away from incorporating and welcoming immigrants into their own rhetoric. When Republicans embark on meanspirited immigrant bashing, Democrats should take notes from Harry Reid’s 2010 re-election victory in Nevada and Ralph Northam’s 2017 […] Read more »
Party switching – the Case for Racial Resentment
… If racial animus has the power to draw those with a high propensity of racial resentment into the Republican tent, can it then function as a wedge-issue, potentially alienating traditionally Republican voters from Republican candidates? Tests of this hypothesis are difficult, mostly because Big-N-data on resentment that would permit […] Read more »