Virginia victories provided Democrats with a needed psychological shot in the arm. … The wailing of the commentariat notwithstanding, in truth, this year’s special elections hold out even more hope for big Democratic gains in 2018 than Virginia and New Jersey, even though Democrats lost several of the high-profile specials. […] Read more »
Why Evangelicals Stick with Donald Trump and Roy Moore
Nobody should be surprised that evangelical voters are sticking with the GOP. I’ve been watching evangelical voting behavior since I worked for Paul Weyrich’s Free Congress Foundation in the 1980s, and I’ve come to believe that, in most cases (though certainly not all), white evangelicals get their religion from their […] Read more »
Sample Composition Effects in Alabama Senate Election Polling
The controversy surrounding Roy Moore in the Alabama Senate election seemed primed to create a differential partisan nonresponse bias phenomenon often seen in past election polling. As negative news increases about a candidate in an election, members of the public who share that candidate’s party or support the candidate become […] Read more »
Historic turnout of young voters in Virginia election poses problem for Republicans
As bad as the overall outcome of Virginia’s recent election was for Republicans, there was one facet of the vote that raises special alarm for the party’s future. That’s the performance of young voters, who came out in historic numbers and overwhelmingly cast their ballots for the Democratic candidate for […] Read more »
Blast From the Past: The Current Political World Mirrors 2009
The party not occupying the White House seizes control of governor’s offices in New Jersey and Virginia. An unexpectedly competitive special Senate election threatens the chamber’s balance of power. Major legislation being forced through along partisan lines heads for a climactic holiday-season vote. Veteran lawmakers of the governing party race […] Read more »
When ‘Democrat’ is a worse slur than ‘alleged sexual miscreant’
President Trump’s rationale for continuing to support Roy Moore, the Republican candidate for the Senate in the Alabama, was simple when he offered it on Tuesday. “We don’t need a liberal person in there, a Democrat,” Trump said. The contrast Trump drew, then, was this. Either Moore, accused of sexual […] Read more »