… According to Gallup data from the first half of 2017, only a handful of states have a greater Republican edge than Alabama — consistent with what Gallup found in 2016. Half of the state’s residents (50%) identify as Republicans or lean toward the Republican Party, while a third identify […] Read more »
What The Hell Is Happening With These Alabama Polls?
Somebody’s going to be wrong in Alabama. We’ve already urged caution when interpreting polls of Alabama’s special election to the U.S. Senate, which will be held on Tuesday. Some of that is because of the media’s usual tendency to demand certainty from the polls when the polls can’t provide it. […] Read more »
Up for Grabs: Turnout Big Question in Alabama Senate Race
Slight differences in turnout could change the outcome of tomorrow’s special U.S. Senate election in Alabama. According to the Monmouth University Poll , a standard midterm turnout model gives Republican Roy Moore a slight advantage. A higher, although less likely, near-presidential election turnout would give Democrat Doug Jones a slim […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Enthused Democrats give Jones lead over Moore in Alabama
Democrat Doug Jones holds a 10-point lead over Republican Roy Moore among likely voters in deep red Alabama. Greater party loyalty plus higher interest in the election among Democrats combined with more enthusiasm among Jones supporters gives him the advantage in the race to fill the U.S. Senate seat previously […] Read more »
Roy Moore’s Alabama
… I have closely studied Winston County history and have long been proud of my ancestral ties. I wanted to explore whether traditional Republicanism could fully explain how the Old South’s most independent thinkers became Trump zombies willing now to send a plausibly accused pedophile to the Senate rather than […] Read more »
In Alabama, no good outcomes for the Republican Party
Every competitive special election draws outsized attention, but few deserve it more than Tuesday’s Senate contest in Alabama. No matter the outcome, the results will reverberate loudly across the country — and nowhere more than inside the Republican Party. … For Republicans, there likely can be no truly good outcome. […] Read more »