A record 137.5 million Americans voted in the 2016 presidential election, according to new data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Overall voter turnout – defined as the share of adult U.S. citizens who cast ballots – was 61.4% in 2016, a share similar to 2012 but below the 63.6% who […] Read more »
Cultural Displacement—Not Economic Hardship—More Predictive of White Working-Class Support for Trump
White working-class voters who reported feelings of cultural dislocation or favored deportation of illegal immigrants were more than three times more likely to support Trump, according to new analysis of a fall PRRI/The Atlantic survey released today. The influence of economic factors is both less powerful and more complex. CONT. […] Read more »
A 2016 Review: There’s Reason to Be Skeptical of a Comey Effect
On Friday, Oct. 28, James B. Comey, the F.B.I. director, sent a letter to Congress about new evidence in the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails. Politicians, analysts and journalists are still debating whether the letter cost Mrs. Clinton the presidency. It’s certainly possible. But I am not at all sure, […] Read more »
Why did Trump win? More whites — and fewer blacks — actually voted.
Why did Trump win — and Clinton lose — the 2016 U.S. presidential election? That’s been debated widely, to understate the case. Nominees include each campaign’s ground game, messaging, FBI Director James B. Comey’s last-minute letter to Congress, and defections from the “Obama coalition.” Here, we offer new data to […] Read more »
Pollsters Find ‘At Best Mixed Evidence’ Comey Letter Swayed Election
FBI Director James Comey said this week that he is “mildly nauseous” at the idea that the FBI may have swayed the presidential election results. A new report may ease that nausea, if only a little. “We would conclude there is at best mixed evidence to suggest that the FBI […] Read more »
Q&A: Political polls and the 2016 election
The outcome of the 2016 presidential election surprised a lot of people – not least the many political pollsters and analysts covering it. Today the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), the nation’s leading organization of survey researchers, released a long-awaited report that examines polling during last year’s long […] Read more »