… Lower black turnout in 2016 might be explained as a reversion to the mean after that group’s historic turnout for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. It’s possible that Clinton could never inspire black turnout the way the first African-American president could. But even if this shift is more […] Read more »
Trump Riding Effects of Widespread Party Reorganization
By most any measure, the Trump Administration is defining political news in 2017, from the morning tweets to evening breaking news stories. But behind the hurly burly of the daily news cycle, the data suggest a quieter but potentially much bigger story is working its way through American politics: The […] Read more »
Survey Suggests American Voters Have More in Common Than You Might Think
Conventional wisdom states that the political landscape has Americans more divided than ever, but new research suggests there is plenty Americans do agree on. Following the contentious 2016 presidential election, Deep Roots Analytics, a firm co-founded by former Mitt Romney campaign director of data science Alex Lundry, conducted a survey […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Trump approval down, voters support special counsel on Russia
American voters disagree with President Trump’s firing of FBI Director James Comey, think the dismissal was for self-serving reasons, and approve of a special counsel being appointed to investigate Russian government efforts to influence the election and the Trump campaign. In addition, a majority opposes the Republican plan to replace […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton’s ’email’ problem was bigger than anyone realized
Hillary Clinton’s ongoing struggle to deal with the revelation that she used a private email server during her time as secretary of state dominated the conversation about her presidential candidacy, and research suggests it might have doomed her campaign, according to a new study by a consortium of pollsters released […] Read more »
Predicting 2016 State Presidential Election Results with a National Tracking Poll and MRP
Donald Trump’s widely unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election has raised questions about the accuracy of public opinion polling, the aggregation of polling into probabilistic election forecasts and the interpretation of election polling by data analysts, journalists and the general public. While national-level polls on average proved as […] Read more »