Did the Clinton campaign really stop polling at the end?

An explosive allegation from prominent Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg last week is sparking a new wave of criticism and recriminations about Hillary Clinton’s campaign. The charge — that the campaign went the final three weeks of last year’s presidential election without polling the battleground states — amounts to an accusation […] Read more »

Most Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of North Korea, health care

Most Americans continue to see North Korea as a threat that can be contained, though the number who say it requires military action has risen slightly in recent weeks. A majority disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the situation, and more voice concern that the U.S. would go to war […] Read more »

How She Lost

Hillary Clinton’s tragic 2016 campaign faced withering criticism in the press, social media, and now, in Jonathan Allen and Amie Parnes’s inside account, Shattered. From my vantage point as lead pollster for the Democratic nominees in 1992 and 2000, part of the closing clutch of pollsters in 2004, and invited […] Read more »

The Media Has A Probability Problem

… In recent elections, the media has often overestimated the precision of polling, cherry-picked data and portrayed elections as sure things when that conclusion very much wasn’t supported by polls or other empirical evidence. … Probably the most important problem with 2016 coverage was confirmation bias — coupled with what […] Read more »