The real message of the memo released last week by Rep. Devin Nunes assailing the FBI and Department of Justice is that Donald Trump is changing the Republican Party far more than it is changing him. The memo from Nunes, chair of the House Intelligence Committee, failed to deliver revelations […] Read more »
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Has Trump Remade The GOP?
This week, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast discusses whether the Nunes memo was much ado about nothing — and even if it is, whether it could still cause political consequences. The crew also discusses whether Trump has molded the GOP in his image and what it takes to shift a party’s […] Read more »
This is the week that the GOP truly became the party of Trump
This was the week when the Republican Party finally went all in with President Trump. What once seemed unlikely is now reality. The Republican establishment — there are a few dissenting voices, of course — has succumbed to the power of the presidency, and this president in particular. This coming […] Read more »
Why The Nunes Memo Probably Won’t Do What Trump Wants It To
Public opinion on the Russia investigation has been pretty stable all year — Republicans are skeptical but Americans overall support it. It’s hard, therefore, to see the much-hyped “Nunes memo,” which Trump declassified and congressional Republicans then made public on Friday, changing all that much. CONT. Perry Bacon Jr., FiveThirtyEight […] Read more »
Why don’t Trump voters feel betrayed? Because they’re getting what they wanted.
Why doesn’t President Trump’s base feel betrayed yet, as so many observers think it should? Pundits have argued that they would feel alienated by his State of the Union address, his firing of Stephen K. Bannon and his trip to Davos to mingle with the global elite. Our research suggests […] Read more »
Better poll sampling would have cast more doubt on the potential for Hillary Clinton to win the 2016 election
… In a perfect world, polls sample from the population of voters, who would state their political preference perfectly clearly and then vote accordingly. However, results from small random samples can be quite unreliable due to extremely narrow electoral margins. To calculate the probability of winning the 2016 US presidential […] Read more »