… Trump’s campaign flourished in 2016 even after saying then-Sen. John McCain of Arizona, a former prisoner of war, was “not a war hero.” He won a larger share of the primary vote from active and former military members than he did from other Republican voters, according to an academically […] Read more »
Democrats are leading in the polls. That means it’s time for them to panic.
The summer is coming to the close of an even-numbered year and Democrats are up in the polls, which means it’s time for them to freak out about the upcoming election. Democrats are nothing if not a self-doubting bunch, and the 2016 election left such a psychic scar that many […] Read more »
Trump has lost ground since 2016 among key groups, down 11 points against Biden
The new USC Dornsife Daybreak poll shows troubling signs for the candidacy of President Donald Trump and not just because he’s trailing his opponent by 11 points, 52% – 41%. The president has lost ground in many core demographic groups who voted for him in 2016, including men, people without […] Read more »
Trump continues to break the polling
… The fact that the conventional wisdom was wrong in 2016 has clearly had a big effect on people’s perceptions and not necessarily in a good way. A plurality of Americans thought that the Republicans would hold onto the House in 2018, even as polling suggested otherwise. They were blown […] Read more »
Four Years Later, It’s Still All About the Base
… Trump is trailing, not because he’s losing his 2016 base, but because he has never expanded beyond it. This week I dug into the most recent national poll from Pew research (7/27-8/2) and compared it with the results of their 2016 validated vote survey (basically, a post-election exit poll […] Read more »
Watch the key 2016 numbers as you watch the 2020 polls
With the convention season ending and the sprint to November about to begin, it might be useful to look once again at the 2016 presidential exit poll. The survey offers a window into that year’s electorate and will allow us to compare where we are now and where we are […] Read more »