The U.S. presidential election results of 2016 surprised many poll-watchers, suggesting possible biases in estimated support for the major party candidates and posing a challenge for poll aggregation as a prediction tool. Using data from earlier elections and the 2016 campaign, we evaluated poll aggregation performance for the major prediction […] Read more »
Trump’s war of attrition against Mueller bears fruit among Republicans
President Trump is waging a war of attrition against special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation. If his goal is to poison the reception to whatever Mueller’s findings turn out to be, as seems evident from what he and his allies have done, he is making progress. The slow but […] Read more »
What Are They Hiding?
The Special Counsel Investigation: Americans want the investigation to continue, but are more interested in indictments and crimes than in rehashing 2016. For many Americans, the cover up is the crime. When we ask Americans what this investigation is about, they say it’s about Russian interference and collusion rather than […] Read more »
Whites’ Unease Shadows the Politics of a More Diverse America
… Mr. Trump’s rise to the presidency prompted widespread efforts to understand the motivations of the white working-class voters who propelled him into the White House. It fueled scorching debates over the role that racism played in the presidential election. Economists proposed that workers in distress because of trade and […] Read more »
Politics Podcast: A Year Of Mueller
It’s been just over a year since special counsel Robert Mueller began investigating Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team takes stock of what he’s uncovered during that time and looks ahead to what could come next. The crew also weighs in on the debate […] Read more »
Congressional Candidates, Not Mueller, Could Decide Trump’s Future
For months, the political world has treated Robert S. Mueller III as the arbiter of President Trump’s fate: Hopeful Democrats have theorized about the damage Mr. Mueller’s investigation might inflict. Suspicious Republicans, led by Mr. Trump, have cast him as leading a “witch hunt.” But this week Rudolph W. Giuliani, […] Read more »