For many political junkies and analysts, the 2020 presidential campaign feels eerily familiar. The national polls show the Democrat has a big lead. There are some usually Republican states that seem to be in play. And the Trump campaign is relying heavily on a base-focus strategy. It’s all very 2016 […] Read more »
Gender in the 2020 election: Have we gotten the story backwards?
… It has become conventional wisdom in 2020 that a Biden victory would be powered by women’s massive disaffection from Donald Trump. But the Pew findings show that something else is happening that calls this assumption into question, something that may shed light on the larger problem of sexism in […] Read more »
Why Trump is losing
… Why might Trump’s narrow popular-vote loss in 2016 become a more dramatic rejection of the incumbent president? Detailed new polling from Pew Research Center shows how the electorate has shifted away from Trump over the past four years. Two years ago, the research firm compiled a picture of the […] Read more »
Why Joe Biden’s lead is different than Hillary Clinton’s
New polls released Sunday confirm it: Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a clear advantage over President Donald Trump heading into the first debate on Tuesday. The New York Times/Siena College poll gives Biden a 49% to 41% lead over Trump among likely voters. The ABC News/Washington Post poll puts […] Read more »
Great Lakes states voted against Hillary Clinton; not for Trump
A lot of things had to fall right for Donald Trump to win the presidency in 2016, but the biggest key was his ability to win key northern states that had voted Democratic for several cycles. In particular, Trump flipped Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which had voted Democratic in every […] Read more »
Why Supreme Court politics in 2020 look way different from 2016 or 2018
… President Donald Trump was likely helped in the 2016 election by the fight over a Supreme Court nomination. Similarly, Republicans were likely aided in the 2018 Senate battle by the nomination and eventual confirmation of Justice Brett Kavanaugh. We don’t know what the ultimate effect of any Supreme Court […] Read more »