The clock is running out on President Donald Trump’s chances for a comeback. He continues to trail former Vice President Joe Biden nationally and in the key swing states with just nine days to go. But perhaps most worrisome for the President: Trump’s clearly behind his 2016 pace. By this […] Read more »
Beyond the Needle: Probability experts assess 2020 race
The one thing most likely to conjure nightmares of the 2016 election night for opponents of President Donald Trump is the Needle. A graphic on The New York Times’ website, the Needle measured in real time the probability of victory for Trump or Hillary Clinton as votes were counted. Its […] Read more »
The Relentless Shrinking of Trump’s Base
In 2016, Donald J. Trump confounded the polls in part by generating an unanticipated level of enthusiasm and turnout from a group that had grown increasingly apathetic about elections: white voters without college degrees. But in 2020, Mr. Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. face a drastically changed electorate. The […] Read more »
This is Biden’s shortest path to the White House
Two weeks before Election Day, Joe Biden appears well-positioned to finish the job that Democrats above all hired him to do: Rebuild the party’s blue wall in the Rust Belt. Biden’s principal asset in the 2020 Democratic primaries was the widespread sense among party voters that he was best qualified […] Read more »
Why These Voters Rejected Hillary Clinton but Are Backing Joe Biden
… Since 2019, Mr. Biden has held an advantage of four to eight points over Mrs. Clinton in key swing districts, according to an analysis by John Hagner, a partner at Clarity Campaign Labs, a Democratic data analytics firm. Polling shows Mr. Biden scoring higher than Mrs. Clinton among a […] Read more »
Biden leads Trump. So did Hillary Clinton. For Democrats, it’s a worrisome campaign deja vu
The polls are once again delivering feel-good boosts to Democrats: Joe Biden beats President Trump by 10, 11 or 12 points nationally, depending on the day. His edge in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin averages eight. Propeller-heads promise better than 4 in 5 odds of a new president next year. But […] Read more »