Meetings of the American Association of Public Opinion Research tend to be pretty staid affairs. But when members of the group gathered for a conference call at this time in 2016, the polling industry was experiencing a crisis of confidence. Donald J. Trump had swept most of the Midwest to […] Read more »
Analyzing Black Support for President Trump
President Donald Trump recently convened a “Black Voices for Trump” conference in Atlanta. In his speech to those assembled, Trump said: “We’re going to campaign for every last African-American vote in 2020. We’ve done more for African-Americans in three years than the broken Washington establishment has done in more than […] Read more »
White Trump voters are richer than they appear
… Our work suggests that when making voting decisions, people assess their economic position relative to members of their own communities rather than to folks in the whole country. … We find local income position has a significant association with vote choice. As the data in the table show, support […] Read more »
Politics with Amy Walter: What Did Democrats Get Wrong About Religious Voters in 2016?
A recent study from Pew Research found that white people who identify as Christians represent about two-thirds of all Republicans. Meanwhile, Americans unaffiliated with any religion, and racial minorities who identify as Christians, now each make up a bigger share of the Democratic coalition. This week, we take a look […] Read more »
The complex considerations undergirding 2020 polling
About two weeks before Election Day 2016, the New York Times tweeted its most recent forecast for the outcome of the presidential election. Hillary Clinton had a 93 percent chance of winning, the forecast suggested, leaving Donald Trump a less than 1-in-10 chance of success. … That election was certainly […] Read more »
The Border Between Red and Blue America
The suburbs are up for grabs. Anybody who’s paying attention to the 2020 election knows that. But there’s a more fundamental question: Just what are the suburbs anyway? In a statistical sense, they are surprisingly hard to define. The United States Census Bureau, the primary source of demographic data, doesn’t […] Read more »