In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s 2016 election victory, analysts fiercely debated the role of the approximately six million voters who supported President Barack Obama in 2012 but shifted their support to Mr. Trump in 2016. Democratic strategists also had to worry about their future behavior: Was 2016 a temporary […] Read more »
Want to know what will happen in 2020? Look to state polls for the answer
Before an election the media closely follows polls. Rob Crandall/Shutterstock.com Daniel R. Birdsong, University of Dayton Public opinion polls are ingrained in American politics. It seems like every day there is a new poll about the presidential election or impeachment or whether the public feels that the United States is […] Read more »
The 2016 Electoral College Map: A Template for 2020
Key Points • In 2016, Hillary Clinton would have needed to flip 38 additional Electoral College votes to reach 270, thereby winning a majority in the Electoral College.• Using 2016 presidential election results, we can map out the different paths that Clinton had to winning 270 electoral votes. These routes […] Read more »
Three reasons why the Democrats’ Blue Wall crumbled
The story of why Democrats lost in 2016 has been dissected by journalists, activists and politicians since the moment Donald Trump won, with an array of explanations offered for what went wrong for the party. But one indisputable fact is that had Democrats won in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, President […] Read more »
Biden holds a big lead over Trump with a key demographic: Cynics
A feature of modern presidential politics is a grim one: Voters are generally asked to choose between two candidates they might not like very much. … As it turns out, while people who liked Trump and didn’t like Clinton voted heavily for Trump (as you’d expect), the current president also […] Read more »
Trump Has a Gift for Tearing Us Apart
Donald Trump has done everything within his power to activate racial and ethnic animosity in this country. His main targets are immigrants, who are often greeted with rank hatred. But it’s a mistake to think that Trump started all this, even as he’s taking full advantage of the opportunities animosity […] Read more »