This may be a particularly bad time to write an update on the House. But we’re going to do so anyway, if only to explain why that is. Mainly, it’s because we’re in a very hazy period in the battle for control of the lower chamber — a battle that, […] Read more »
Donald Trump’s poll denialism
With Hillary Clinton extending her lead nationwide and in key battleground states, Trump is toying with what might be called “poll denialism,” giving his supporters license to dismiss the discouraging data. “Even the polls are crooked,” he said at a Monday night rally, expressing disbelief that he is losing to […] Read more »
Is There Any Precedent For A Trump Comeback?
Donald Trump now trails Hillary Clinton by 6.6 percentage points, according to our polls-only model. And the clock is ticking. We’re 26 days from the election, and by this point in past campaigns, the concrete had basically dried. Trump could stage a comeback. It’s possible. But it would be basically […] Read more »
How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages
There is a 19-year-old black man in Illinois who has no idea of the role he is playing in this election. He is sure he is going to vote for Donald J. Trump. … He’s a panelist on the U.S.C. Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak poll, which has emerged as the […] Read more »
Poll charts damage of tape to Trump in Wisconsin
Awash in controversy and dogged by divisions in his own party, Donald Trump has slipped further behind Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin and now trails her by 7 points in the latest survey of likely voters by the Marquette Law School. … The poll’s timing made it a natural test of […] Read more »
Searching for Sasquatch
Where to begin? Stranger things have never happened in presidential politics — at least in the modern era. … It’s little wonder commentators are declaring Donald Trump’s implosion. Some opine he could come in behind Barry Goldwater and George McGovern, neither of whom cracked 40 percent. If ever there were […] Read more »