No, one 19-year-old Trump supporter probably isn’t distorting the polling averages all by himself

… On Wednesday, the New York Times published an interesting piece that looked at how the USC/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” tracking poll weights its sample. The article suggested that the weighting was the main factor in causing the Daybreak poll to be the only major survey that had showed Donald […] Read more »

Will This Deja Vu Be Different?

Over the last year we’ve witnessed a familiar pattern: Trump does or says something controversial/contentious/reprehensible (think: attacks on Judge Curiel and the Khan family), his poll numbers plummet and talk ensues about a Hillary Clinton “landslide” and a down ballot wipe out. … Then, like clockwork, the race stabilizes. … […] Read more »