… The Tea Party changed what it was permissible to debate openly in contemporary politics. Within a few years, it enabled Trump to further erode the norms of political combat and more openly instigate partisan conflict based on racial and ethnic antagonism. Under Trump, coded rhetoric like Reagan’s “welfare queen” […] Read more »
Pollsters got it wrong in the 2016 election. Now they want another shot.
… A cocktail of problems led to the polling misses of 2016. … But while pollsters received the majority of the blame, perhaps more condemnation ought to have fallen on the forecasters, who turn pollsters’ data into predictions. CONT. Rob Arthur, MIT Technology Review Read more »
A skeptical party warms to a party-switching billionaire New Yorker, take two
… When Quinnipiac University asked voters how they felt about Bloomberg in December, he was barely above water with members of the party whose nomination he sought. By which I mean his net favorability was only slightly positive; only a bit more Democrats viewed him favorably than unfavorably. Just past […] Read more »
Did Obama’s Tenure Hurt Black Turnout in 2016?
… Black voters’ attitudes about the impact of the Obama administration are complicated because they hold Barack and Michelle Obama in such high regard. As president, Mr. Obama enjoyed extraordinarily high approval ratings among African-Americans, even as black unemployment remained high. His personal popularity notwithstanding, African-Americans’ ratings of public policy, […] Read more »
Take Two: Can Sanders Broaden His Base?
Bernie Sanders begins his second bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in possession of something he never attained in 2016: A competitive chance of winning. CONT. Rhodes Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball Read more »
With Iowa and New Hampshire still up in the air, Democratic race has 2016 echoes
… Given the wildly conflicting polls (and the difficulty in polling caucus attendees), we still can’t be certain who’ll win Iowa, what the order of finish will be or what the margins between candidates will look like. So there is a lot up in the air. On the other hand, […] Read more »