… Over the past three weeks, our election model and polling for The Economist has shown a consistent lead for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump of three to five percent. In contrast, some other polls have shown wide swings. … We believe that most of the bounces seen in surveys this […] Read more »
Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory
… Trump remains an underdog, but no longer really a longshot: His Electoral College chances are 29 percent in our polls-only model — his highest probability since Oct. 2 — and 30 percent in polls-plus. Whenever the race tightens, we get people protesting that the popular vote doesn’t matter because […] Read more »
Campaigns reinforce candidate images, but may change the way voters describe them
Campaigns can change the way voters look at candidates, taking characteristics that voters generally believe and turning them into campaign labels. The latest Economist/YouGov Poll demonstrates how this works – especially when it comes to voters who don’t like a candidate. CONT. Kathy Frankovic, YouGov Read more »
The Final Push: Estimated Popular Vote Totals from the RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey
With just seven days left before Election Day on November 8, the latest RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey (PEPS) (2,269 respondents between October 20 and November 1, 2016) indicates that the popular vote gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a significant lead of 9.1 points over Republican Donald Trump. Libertarian Gary Johnson […] Read more »
Americans’ Confidence in Voting, Election
As claims that next Tuesday’s presidential election is “rigged” continue to swirl, two in three Americans (66%) say they are “very” or “somewhat confident” that votes will be cast and counted accurately across the country. This is similar to the 62% Gallup recorded in August, after GOP presidential nominee Donald […] Read more »
Clinton, Trump All but Tied as Enthusiasm Dips for Democratic Candidate
Strong enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton has ebbed since the renewal of the FBI’s email investigation. While vote preferences have held essentially steady, she’s now a slim point behind Donald Trump — a first since May — in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research […] Read more »