In the wake of the stunning victory by Donald Trump six days ago, there’s a search on to better understand the American electorate that produced this most unorthodox of president-elects. Race has been at the forefront of that conversation — and for good reason. … But education level also provides a […] Read more »
As it turns out, James Comey is a great scapegoat for Hillary Clinton’s loss
There is no conceivable way that FBI Director James Comey’s last-minute update to Congress about the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s email server was beneficial to her. It was never likely to sway a lot of opinions, given that most attitudes on the subject had been formulated well before voting began […] Read more »
Pulling Democrats Back to ‘It’s the Economy, Stupid’
The Democrats’ stunning defeat in the presidential race and continued struggles in lower-level contests have jolted party leaders into concluding that their emphasis on cultural issues has all but crippled them by diverting voters’ attention from the core Democratic message of economic fairness. … Over President Obama’s two terms, Democrats […] Read more »
Issue-handling beats leadership: Issues and Leaders model predicts Clinton will defeat Trump
The Issues and Leaders model predicts the national popular two-party vote in US presidential elections from people’s perceptions of the candidates’ issue-handling competence and leadership qualities. In previous elections from 1972 to 2012, the model’s Election Eve forecasts missed the actual vote shares by, on average, little more than one […] Read more »
The Gist podcast: The Fault in Our Polls
FiveThirtyEight’s @ForecasterEnten explains polling error, and Princeton’s @julianzelizer puts the 2016 election in historical context. CONT. Mike Pesca, The Gist Read more »
Why Trump won: It was fundamental!
… As it turned out, however, the political science models – looked at in the aggregate, (which is how I typically made my prediction every four years) – were spot on in 2016. As of today, with votes still coming in, Clinton has won about 50.2% of the popular vote […] Read more »