Donald Trump is President-Elect of the United States. Britain is leaving the European Union. Ed Miliband’s not Prime Minister. The past eighteen months have left the reputation of both pollsters and poll aggregators in tatters. … The polling misses in the United Kingdom and United States are damaging not just […] Read more »
Democrats angry that Clinton had no economic message
… Celinda Lake, the renowned Democratic pollster, is very angry that her party failed to lay out an economic vision to contrast with Trump’s. During an afternoon symposium at Gallup’s headquarters in downtown Washington yesterday, where dozens of experts on public opinion gathered to discuss the lessons of the election, […] Read more »
Rural Hispanic voters — like white rural voters — shifted toward Trump
… My county-by-county comparison of election results in 2016 and 2012, drawn from data available at CNN.com, Politico.com, PBS.org and other sites, shows that rural white and rural Hispanic voters have a lot in common. Or to put it another way, the election of 2016 revealed an urban/rural divide that […] Read more »
Is the Slide Into Tribal Politics Inevitable?
Donald J. Trump’s victory could well push the American party system toward a clash between an overwhelmingly white ethnic party and a cosmopolitan coalition of minority groups and college-educated whites. … Mr. Trump’s campaign may set in motion a process that reorients American politics toward the cosmopolitanism versus nationalism divide […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton’s Urban Turnout Problem
On November 15, we released an article that highlighted the Democratic Party’s failure in last week’s election to gain traction in rural and small-town America. The effect of which stymied the party’s prospects in the House of Representatives and continued a trend that deserves more attention going forward. However, as […] Read more »
Behind Trump’s win in rural white America: Women joined men in backing him
In rural parts of America, it wasn’t just white men who flocked to the polls on Election Day to vote for Donald Trump. Rural white women were right there in the voting lines with them. The NBC News national exit poll documented how Trump and his populist message disproportionately appealed […] Read more »