The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds President Donald Trump in a familiar position as summer arrives, trailing by 7 points in a head-to-head matchup against presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. But inside the poll are more concerning numbers for the president that suggest challenges with key voter groups. […] Read more »
The George Floyd Election
The nationwide protests over the killing of George Floyd will test two competing notions of how voters respond to crises that provoke both anger and grief. Could the demonstrations that have devolved into mayhem, looting and assault lead to victory for President Trump? Will they empower Republicans in the way […] Read more »
Does Trump Really Have Unique Appeal Among Working-Class Whites?
In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team discusses comments former Vice President Joe Biden made during a conversation about black voters. The crew also talks through the findings of a new study about white working class voters in the 2016 election. FiveThirtyEight The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown […] Read more »
Donald Trump’s problems with senior voters started long before the coronavirus
In recent weeks, reporters and political analysts have centered on the challenge that President Trump currently faces with one particular group of voters: seniors. … The most common explanation is the coronavirus. As one recent New York Times article argued, “The coronavirus crisis and the administration’s halting response to it […] Read more »
Donald Trump, Joe Biden and the Vote of the Irish
In 2016, my vantage point on the donnybrook between Donald and Hillary was an Irish bar in Queens, where I was a bartender a few nights a week. … Half the patrons were Irish immigrants who considered Mr. Trump a real “eejit,” but the other half, the Irish Americans, thought […] Read more »
The Coronavirus Is Deadliest Where Democrats Live
The staggering American death toll from the coronavirus, now approaching 100,000, has touched every part of the country, but the losses have been especially acute along its coasts, in its major cities, across the industrial Midwest, and in New York City. The devastation, in other words, has been disproportionately felt […] Read more »