… The alt-right is not a large movement, but the prominence that it is enjoying in the early days of the Trump era may tell us something about the way the country is changing. At least since the end of the Cold War, and certainly since the election of a […] Read more »
Democrats Shouldn’t Count On An Unpopular Trump To Win Back Governorships
Democrats had an election night to forget last month. They lost the presidency and a net of two governor’s mansions,1 and gained fewer seats in the House and Senate than was expected. But those disappointments didn’t all occur the same way. Although the Senate elections were among the most nationalized […] Read more »
Donald Trump did not win 34% of Latino vote in Texas. He won much less.
Ever since the national exit poll reported that 29 percent of Hispanics voted for Trump, the accuracy of that number has been debated. In particular, some have questioned whether it is an overestimate, citing a separate survey of Latino voters by the polling firm Latino Decisions that reported that 18 […] Read more »
The truth behind House Democrats’ 2016 polling
Though the results on Election Night up and down the ticket were ultimately different than the predictions from experts, pundits and analysts, a factual look back shows that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) internal polling clearly and accurately predicted the rise, fall, and ultimate landing for House Democratic candidates. […] Read more »
Covering politics in a ‘post-truth’ America
For the last two decades, the rules of political reporting have been blown up. And I’ve cheered at every step along the way. Not for me the mourning over the dismantling of the old order, all those lamentations about the lost golden era of print newspapers thudding on doorsteps and […] Read more »
Survey weighting and that 2% swing
Nate Silver agrees with me that much of that shocking 2% swing can be explained by systematic differences between sample and population: survey respondents included too many Clinton supporters, even after corrections from existing survey adjustments. In Nate’s words, “Pollsters Probably Didn’t Talk To Enough White Voters Without College Degrees.” […] Read more »