For Democrats, the lingering question of whether it was demographic or economic anxiety that primarily motivated Donald Trump’s coalition is a little like poet Robert Frost asking whether the world will end in fire or ice. The answer may be the same, too. Frost, of course, concluded that either would […] Read more »
In forecasting the 2016 election result, modelers had a good year. Pollsters did not.
The 2016 US election forecasting field was mostly divided up between the political science modelers, pollsters and poll aggregators. Pollsters and poll aggregators use national and state-level vote intention polls to make their forecasts, and are continually updating their forecasts until Election Day. The political science modelers apply theory and […] Read more »
The candidate or the circumstances
… Trump’s failure to capture a plurality of the popular vote suggests he failed to live up to the potential created for him by situational factors over which neither he, nor Clinton, had any control. As I noted throughout the campaign, Clinton was running an uphill race based on the […] Read more »
Why Obamacare enrollees voted for Trump
… The health care law has helped lots of people in Whitley County, where Oller works. The uninsured rate has fallen from 25 percent in 2013 to 10 percent today, according to data from the nonprofit Enroll America. Overall, Kentucky is now tied with West Virginia for the biggest increase […] Read more »
Why the polls missed in 2016: Was it shy Trump supporters after all?
Following the unexpected victory of Donald Trump, the American Association for Public Opinion Research announced, “The polls clearly got it wrong … and already the chorus of concerns about a ‘crisis in polling’ have emerged.” Many forecasts based on polls were indeed wrong, but a closer look leaves us more […] Read more »
Where Were Trump’s Votes? Where the Jobs Weren’t
Did the white working class vote its economic interests? … Yes, the economy has added millions of jobs since President Obama took office. Even manufacturing employment has recovered some of its losses. Still, less-educated white voters had a solid economic rationale for voting against the status quo — nearly all […] Read more »