In the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many analysts suggested that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald J. Trump because of poor Democratic turnout. Months later, it is clear that the turnout was only modestly better for Mr. Trump than expected. To the extent Democratic turnout was weak, it was […] Read more »
Democrats burned by polling blind spot
As they investigate the forces behind the party’s stunning losses in November, Democrats are coming to a troubling conclusion. The party didn’t just lose among rural white voters on Election Day, it may have failed to capture them in its pre-election polling as well. Many pollsters and strategists believe that […] Read more »
Health Care Plan Championed By Trump Hurts Counties That Voted For Him
The Affordable Care Act replacement plan championed by President Trump would hurt low-income people in rural areas that voted heavily for the Republican last fall, according to an NPR analysis of data on proposed subsidy changes from the Kaiser Family Foundation. CONT. NPR Read more »
Another Look Back at 2016: Comparing the exit poll and the Cooperative Congressional Election Study
On election night in November, exit polls provided the first insight into how different demographic groups voted. But months later, other richer data sets are being released, and they provide researchers with new information about the election and the voters that participated in it. One such tool is the Cooperative […] Read more »
Young Adults Increasingly Pessimistic about the Direction of the Country but Energized about Politics
A new GenForward survey released today shows that about 70 percent of African American, Asian American, and Latino/a young adults disapprove of Donald Trump’s first days in office while 55 percent of young whites say the same. More than 6 in 10 report he is doing badly in terms of […] Read more »
5 Numbers That Say a Lot About the Election
Turnout in the 2016 presidential election, initially characterized as low, actually exceeded that of the 2012 race in which President Barack Obama won re-election. … And unsurprisingly, states that made it easier to register and vote usually experienced significantly higher turnout than states that did not. Those findings, and a […] Read more »