… While Trump and his allies have consistently raised his unexpected victory in 2016 as a reason to dismiss what the polls say, highlighting national polling pointing to a Clinton win in particular, 2020 doesn’t look like 2016 at this point. Biden’s not only outperforming where Clinton was at the […] Read more »
No, the polls aren’t undersampling Republicans
Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a clear advantage in the national polls. Perhaps not wanting to acknowledge Biden’s edge, some Republicans, including in President Donald Trump’s own circle, claim that the polls are oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans. Often, they point to the 2016 exit polls. An in-depth […] Read more »
Joe Biden’s advantage over Trump with Black voters is currently smaller than Hillary Clinton’s was
The death of George Floyd and subsequent protests reshaped the presidential race. It brought race relations, racism and police brutality to the forefront. In that time, former Vice President Joe Biden’s advantage over President Donald Trump expanded from about six points to closer to 10 points. Interestingly, however, Trump continues […] Read more »
Big Polling Leads Tend to Erode. Is Biden’s Edge Different?
Joe Biden’s commanding advantage in the race for the White House shows no sign of abating. … After a quarter-century of closely fought elections, it is easy to assume that wide leads are unsustainable in today’s deeply polarized country. Only Barack Obama in 2008 managed to win the national vote […] Read more »
Joe Biden continues to run well ahead of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 pace
… There is no doubt that Biden is leading the race for president right now. He holds an edge nationally, as well as in the key swing states like Pennsylvania. In spite of all these numbers, people continuously point to 2016 in order to dismiss or at least put a […] Read more »
Even if the Polls Are Really Off, Trump Is Still in Trouble
With Joe Biden claiming almost a double-digit lead in national polls, one question still seems to loom over the race: Can we trust the polls after 2016? It’s a good question. But for now, it’s not as important as you might guess. If the election were held today, Mr. Biden […] Read more »