… If Republicans do gain a Senate majority, which they may very well do in November, and manage to pick up eight or more House seats, it will be because of who they are not, not because of who they are. They aren’t in Obama’s party, and they aren’t in […] Read more »
Putting Their Eggs in the Wrong Midterm Basket
Barring significant changes in group voting habits, many commentators have argued that “The Coalition of the Ascendant” is positioned to give Democrats a notable edge in elections in the near future. There may be some truth to that supposition: The country is clearly getting more diverse, and nonwhite voters tend […] Read more »
How Strong Will the Anti-Democratic Backlash Be?
Why isn’t the Republican Party paying a heavy price for its dependence on a shrinking white electorate, its rejection of immigration reform and its “just say no” legislative strategy? … Going largely unmentioned in most analyses is the inability of the Obama administration to markedly improve the economy, which could […] Read more »
NBC4/Marist Poll: Bowser Gains in Race for D.C. Mayor Against Incumbent Gray
In the race for D.C. mayor, Councilmember Muriel Bowser has gained significant ground on incumbent Mayor Vincent Gray, who remains mired in an ongoing investigation into his 2010 campaign. In a NBC4/Marist poll released Tuesday, Bowser and Gray are neck-and-neck, with 28 percent of likely Democratic voters supporting Bowser and […] Read more »
History Suggests It Might Not Get Better For Democrats
… Currently, the generic ballot is roughly a tie among registered voters (that’s bad news for Democrats, who tend to underperform the generic ballot in midterm elections). If history is any guide (it might not be), Democrats (the party of President Obama) are unlikely to see meaningful improvement in their […] Read more »
Could Democrats Lose the Senate? It’s Likely, But Far from a Done Deal
… Pessimism about Democratic prospects this November rests mainly on the macro-environment of the election. President Obama’s approval rating is mired in the low 40s, as is public approval of the Affordable Care Act. … Republicans seem to have a strategy for 2014: steer away from issues that divide the […] Read more »