… Structural changes in voters’ behavior are making it tougher for either party to amass, much less sustain, a comfortable Senate majority—except in rare circumstances. … The big dynamic pointing toward precarious Senate majorities is the increasingly parliamentary nature of congressional elections. In the first decades after World War II, […] Read more »
Populism? Where are the pitchforks?
Americans are in a surly mood, confronting rules they feel are rigged against them. President Barack Obama captured this populist temper in his re-election campaign. He then launched his second term declaring that inequality is the “most pressing challenge of our time,” and laying out a popular agenda to raise […] Read more »
The Urgent Economic Narrative for 2014
The economy is still the main issue in the 2014 election, impacting the mood of the country, driving likely voter turnout, and defining what is at stake. With voters uncertain of President Obama and the Democrats’ direction on the economy, Democratic voters are 7 points less likely than Republicans to […] Read more »
Walk the middle on immigration
It’s almost time to push ahead on immigration reform. Last year, Republican leaders indicated they might go forward on immigration policy after the filing deadlines for primary challenges to incumbents have passed. We’re about there. Even very late primaries, like Florida’s in September, close filing in the next two months. […] Read more »
If Democrats Motivate Women Voters, Then What?
Democrats have been talking a lot about women and equality lately. This week President Barack Obama brought equal-pay-for-women advocate Lilly Ledbetter back to the White House to in honor of Equal Pay Day. And in the Senate Democrats attempted to bring the Paycheck Fairness Act to the floor and were […] Read more »
Democratic Senate Prospects and the New Black Voter
Democrats plan to turn out thousands of African-American voters this fall, in an effort to hold the Senate majority. The challenge is that some of them aren’t yet registered to vote. Which begs the question, after opportunities to elect and re-elect the first black president, why would an African-American choose […] Read more »