A survivor. That’s how some Republicans think of Senator Mary Landrieu, a Louisiana Democrat who seemed to defy political gravity by winning two tough re-election campaigns, even while Louisiana, like the rest of the Deep South, became unshakably Republican. … But an analysis of election results, turnout data and exit […] Read more »
The Dangers of Sticking to a Story Line
At a recent lecture at his alma mater, Georgetown University, former President Clinton aired a complaint previously heard from various press secretaries and communications directors. “If a policymaker is a political leader and is covered primarily by the political press, there is a craving that borders on addictive to have […] Read more »
10 Maps That Explain the 2014 Midterms
… For all the plaudits heaped on the winners and derision dumped on the losers after an election, structural factors controlled by neither side dictate the results to a significant degree. Big gains one year lead to big losses another; races won in certain environments would be defeats in others. […] Read more »
All The Single Ladies: 5 Takeaways About Unmarried Female Voters
In a midterm election that’s expected to hinge on the demographic composition of the electorate, single women could be the key to Democratic chances to hold on to the Senate in November. While Republicans have a longstanding problem with female voters, this year it’s Democrats who have the more urgent […] Read more »
New Election Model Machinery: A Look Under the Hood
John Sides, Ben Highton and Eric McGhee of The Monkey Cage have started Election Lab, a Senate forecasting model at The Washington Post. Their model gives Republicans more than an 80 percent chance of retaking the Senate; that’s much more than the 54 percent chance that Leo, The Upshot’s Senate […] Read more »
CNN Poll: GOP advantage in midterms
A small edge right now in a key indicator of the midterm elections could lead to a big advantage for the Republicans over the Democrats come November. That’s the suggestion from a new CNN/ORC International poll, that also indicates that President Barack Obama’s lackluster approval ratings and pessimistic perceptions about […] Read more »