… While Republicans should not be measuring their drapes for the Senate majority offices just yet, key data in those lean/toss-up Senate seats from the early 2014 merge of the NBC/WSJ polling done by my business partner Bill McInturff and his Democratic counterpart Fred Yang at Hart Research serves as […] Read more »
Voter Enthusiasm Down Sharply From 2010
A majority of U.S. registered voters, 53%, say they are less enthusiastic about voting than in previous elections, while 35% are more enthusiastic. This 18-percentage-point enthusiasm deficit is larger than what Gallup has measured in prior midterm election years, particularly in 2010 when there was record midterm enthusiasm. CONT. Jeffrey […] Read more »
In midterm elections, Democrats can have some hope of retaining control of Senate
… House races, in this modern political age, are almost entirely dictated by the national landscape. It’s virtually impossible for any House candidate to stand out (or above) the national environment. Senate races — featuring better-known candidates and lots more money — can buck national trends (although they don’t always). […] Read more »
Republicans Replay 1998 on Benghazi
… It’s 1998, and House Republicans have moved to charge President Bill Clinton with an impeachable high crime for lying about sex. Parties that don’t control the White House invariably gain in midterm elections. But the anti-Clinton drive energized Democrats. That year, Republicans failed to gain congressional seats in a […] Read more »
Why two Louisiana Senate polls show wildly differing results
Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) is in the reelection race of her life, but two early polls in the past month disagree sharply on how much danger she’s in. A closer look reveals why. The latest was a siren: Landrieu’s negative ratings rocketed 30 percentage points since 2012, and her reelection […] Read more »
Liberal groups launch campaigns to boost turnout based on Obamacare support
Democrats and Republicans agree on one thing about the hotly contested Affordable Care Act: When it comes to voter intensity, the GOP holds a clear upper hand. But a trio of major liberal groups hopes to change that in coming months, with plans to spend tens of millions of dollars […] Read more »