While many have focused on the trouncing of the Tea Party in high profile Senate and House primaries (think Kentucky, Idaho, Georgia, and North Carolina), the reality is that GOP problems go beyond the candidates themselves. To be sure, it only helps Republicans to avoid a replay of 2010 and […] Read more »
Still More on ACA Advertising: “F” Words and the “B” Word
How do you know Republicans are shifting their message against Obamacare? Because Americans for Prosperity just aired a TV ad that doesn’t mention healthcare reform. After the months and millions invested by AFP in attacking the Affordable Care Act, that line almost passes for a joke. The group is attacking, […] Read more »
Betting on a Brand When Politics Is the Family Business
Three business school professors recently set out to discover what accounts for regional differences in product choices by consumers. Although about 60 percent of it had to do with regional sales and marketing, a startling 40 percent stemmed from what they described in The American Economic Review as “persistent brand […] Read more »
When Polling Is More Like Guessing
Election analysts and forecasters depend on accurate polling. Unfortunately, there’s not much of it so far this cycle. Many of the surveys to date have been conducted by firms that use automated phone surveys and combine deficient sampling with baffling weighting practices. Nowhere is this more evident than in recent […] Read more »
The GOP has either a 42% or 77% chance of retaking the Senate
… If you’ve been following elections in recent years, it’s probably been drilled into you that averages of polls are usually quite accurate near the end of the campaign. But the election is still 6 months away, and polling is infrequent in many races — which presents a problem for […] Read more »
Where Is the Tea Party?
With the 2014 primary calendar rolling on, one question has come to dominate the discussion: Where’s the tea party? The Republican Party’s populist force of 2010 has a rough go of it so far. … But looking at the numbers, the tea party’s struggles should not be a surprise. Polling […] Read more »