State Sen. Chris McDaniel finished over 1,000 votes ahead of U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran in Mississippi’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate. But McDaniel — with 49.5 percent of the vote — is short of a majority, the threshold needed to avoid a runoff. So we’ll have that runoff June 24. […] Read more »
The Political Media Still Fall for the Hot-Hand Fallacy
The most important lesson of the 2012 presidential campaign, in my view, was not that polling-based models are foolproof ways to assess the political environment, but instead that undisciplined ways of evaluating polls and political events can lead to flawed conclusions. On several occasions during the race, news media commentators […] Read more »
McDaniel’s ‘Friends and Neighbors’
In his classic book Southern Politics in State and Nation, V.O. Key Jr. wrote about the importance of “friends and neighbors” in one-party southern elections. More than half a century after the book was written, strength at home powered yet another Deep South candidate. Tuesday night featured about as dramatic […] Read more »
GOP actions on immigration reform key to their future
New polling of Latino voters conducted by Latino Decisions for the Center for American Progress Action Fund finds Latino voters unequivocally want immigration reform to happen before the 2014 midterm elections. … With 49 percent of Latino voters indicating they have voted for Republican candidates in the past, there is […] Read more »
Winning Women: What Republicans Can Do in 2014
In our on-going effort to better understand key electoral sub-groups, Public Opinion Strategies commissioned a national survey of women voters on May 21-30, 2014. The survey was designed to provide a perspective on how the Republican Party and its candidates can productively move to engage women voters on issues they […] Read more »
Obama Slips on International Affairs – A New Challenge on Top of the Old Ones
Barack Obama’s approval rating on handling international affairs has dropped under water for the first time in his presidency in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, a further challenge as he seeks to regain his footing in his second term. CONT. Gary Langer, ABC News Read more »