The defeat of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the Republican primary on Tuesday night came as a surprise to probably everyone outside of the Cantor campaign — and perhaps them, too. … But if we take only one polling-related lesson away from this surprise, it is this: Internal polls […] Read more »
Virginia Exurbs Prove Fertile Terrain for David Brat
College professor David Brat’s primary win in Virginia’s 7th congressional district caught the political world by surprise, particularly the man he defeated, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor. But a close look at the VA-07 terrain shows that Mr. Brat had a few points in his favor going in. The seventh […] Read more »
How and Why Eric Cantor Lost
House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost his primary in convincing fashion, but there appear to be two separate questions: How did he lose? And why was it a surprise? One thing that everyone should be able to agree on is that Cantor’s loss was historic. According to CQ Roll Call […] Read more »
Eric Cantor’s Loss Was Like an Earthquake
Few people expected Eric Cantor to lose his primary in Virginia on Tuesday night. The House majority leader was up 13 points in the polls, though there were few in the race, and he had cash, incumbency and the Republican establishment on his side. He’d won his last general election, […] Read more »
Did Democratic Voters Defeat Eric Cantor? Probably Not
House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s unexpected defeat has left many looking for equally unexpected answers. One suggestion is that his opponent, David Brat, was bolstered by Democratic crossover voters, who might have contributed to an increase in turnout from 2012. Mr. Cantor’s pollster, John McLaughlin, said the race was decided […] Read more »
Eric Cantor’s Pollster Tries to Explain Why His Survey Showed Cantor Up 34 Points
Eric Cantor’s pollster whiffed. Less than a week before voters dumped the House majority leader, an internal poll for Cantor’s campaign, trumpeted to the Washington Post, showed Cantor cruising to a 34-point victory in his primary. Instead, Cantor got crushed, losing by 10 percentage points. How did Cantor’s pollster, veteran […] Read more »