I’m going to defend the indefensible and attempt to explain the inexplicable. I’m unwilling to throw up my hands and blame statistics or incompetence for the failure of polls to foresee Rep. Eric Cantor’s primary defeat. Start, in Holmesian fashion, by eliminating the impossible. Those with a middle-school-level knowledge of […] Read more »
A dug-in electorate bodes poorly for the Democrats in November
Since its passage nearly four years ago, a plurality of Americans has disapproved of the Affordable Care Act. Since the onset of the Great Recession 6 years ago, more than 80% of Americans have rated economic conditions as only fair or poor. And since winning a second term, Barack Obama’s […] Read more »
The Cantor Prediction Is Part of a Pattern: GOP Pollsters Stink
The last few years have regrettably made the phrase “Republican pollster” less a job title than a punch line. From the 2012 election, where many in the GOP were stunned by the Obama campaign’s victory, to the 2013 closer-than-expected Virginia gubernatorial race, all the way to the present, Republican polling […] Read more »
Key Midterm Election Indicators at or Near Historical Lows
The election environment for congressional incumbents in 2014 will be challenging, with several key public opinion indicators as negative or nearly as negative as they have been in any recent midterm election year. This includes congressional job approval, which, at 16%, is on pace to be the lowest in a […] Read more »
Why the GOP Still Struggles With Polling
… Eric’s Cantor’s shock defeat Tuesday is being blamed on any number of reasons. But among the seasoned Republican campaign operatives, the biggest internal culprit is seen as the majority leader’s longtime pollster, John McLaughlin, whose own survey of the Virginia race showed Cantor leading his opponent by 34 points. […] Read more »
Republicans come out of the 2014 primary season with little to guide them forward
The 2014 primary season, while leaving the Republicans in good shape for the fall elections against the Democrats, has done little to quiet their internal turmoil or to provide a winning formula going forward. As Republicans struggle to understand the electoral earthquake that cost House Majority Leader Eric Cantor his […] Read more »