When an unpopular president faces a difficult midterm election, candidates from his party tend to avoid him and try to focus on local issues, but the nationalization of politics has made this strategy increasingly difficult. Instead, some red-state Democrats are going out of their way to talk about President Obama […] Read more »
What’s the American political landscape looking like?
The dog days of summer are upon us, and, with it, an extended slowdown in politics — as Americans spend their time working on their tans rather than studying up on the latest fights in the nation’s capital. Things won’t pick up in earnest again until after Labor Day, when […] Read more »
G.O.P. Replays 2010 Strategy at State Level
Republican candidates for governor around the country have built an unexpectedly strong position for election this fall, helped by an improving economy, disaffection with President Obama and a national fund-raising machine that is leagues ahead of the opposition. … While the sheer scale of Republican gains four years ago offers […] Read more »
What’s the value of early Senate polls?
Some recent discussions of Senate forecasting models have looked at current differences among the models, mainly ours and The Upshot’s. One key factor that has differentiated them is polls. Our model hasn’t incorporated polling data, although we’ll be doing so shortly. The Upshot’s model has factored in available polling data […] Read more »
What’s the 2014 election really about? Religious vs. women’s rights
Religious rights versus women’s rights. That’s about as fundamental a clash as you can get in U.S. politics. It’s now at the core of the 2014 election campaign, with both parties girding for battle. What generated the showdown was last week’s U.S. Supreme Court decision in the Hobby Lobby case. […] Read more »
How to Read the Polls in This Year’s Midterms
With four months to go until this year’s midterm elections, perhaps the only thing clear about the fight for the Senate is that it will pose challenges to public polling. There’s always the possibility that the polls could miss the outcome in a close contest. Polls have missed the result […] Read more »