… Nearly five decades after the passage of the Voting Rights Act, black voters in the South are poised to play a pivotal role in this year’s midterm elections. If Democrats win the South and hold the Senate, they will do so because of Southern black voters. The timing — […] Read more »
Warren and Paul on the Pulse of 2016
Back in 2006, Democrats were happy to have Hillary Clinton on the trail with them, but freshman Senator Barack Obama was the real hot ticket as a Democratic surrogate. … The top surrogate for Republicans that year wasn’t Pres. George W. Bush, whose approval ratings were deep underwater, but Sen. […] Read more »
Governors’ Races Are Close, But There’s More Upside For Democrats
Early polls have historically done fairly well in predicting the the outcome of governors’ races. We can add bells and whistles to improve the forecast — and we will — but the polls are a good start and a good baseline. So, let’s check out what the early gubernatorial polls […] Read more »
The Hidden Barrier to a Republican Senate Majority
If Republicans are to win the Senate, they probably are going to have to do something they haven’t done since 1980: beat more than two Democratic Senate incumbents in November. In that Reagan Revolution election — one of the best for the Republican Party in its entire history — the […] Read more »
This chart shows why President Obama is going to be a drag on Democrats this fall
President Obama isn’t on the ballot this fall. But, unless something drastic changes between now and November, Obama’s problematic poll numbers will complicate — but not doom — his party hopes of holding onto its Senate majority. That’s because one of the strongest predictors of seat gains (or losses) in […] Read more »
Democrats Are in a Perilous Position in 2014 Senate Races
Can you predict Senate elections more accurately than a basic polling average? It’s something we at FiveThirtyEight try to do. … But the basic polling average still does pretty well. So before we launch our official projections, let’s take a look at what the latest polling shows and how that […] Read more »