Every election cycle is different. Each has a unique political environment and set of circumstances, all of which keep elections interesting. Aside from the extremely competitive fight over the Senate, the biggest change this time around is the multitude of Senate forecasts using quantitative election models of various types; these […] Read more »
Republicans deliver another self-inflicted wound
Republicans may yet win the elections in November. They may end up in control of both houses of Congress come January. But in the final week before a lengthy August recess, they have shown a remarkable capacity to complicate their path to victory. The latest blow came Thursday in what […] Read more »
Battling big money in the Senate battleground with real consequences for 2014
A new poll of the 12 states where control of the Senate is being contested, fielded by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Every Voice, a major new advocacy effort, shows that voters of all political persuasions are disgusted with the current campaign system and are ready for real […] Read more »
What’s the Matter With Kansas — And Hawaii?
Royal Blue Hawaii and Ruby Red Kansas are two of the most predictable states in presidential and Senate elections. Yet both states have incumbent governors from the dominant parties who are fighting for their political lives. What gives? The 2014 gubernatorial map features a number of fascinating races, some of […] Read more »
The 2014 election polls are about to look better for Republicans. Here’s why.
Pretty soon, the country’s top pollsters will make a subtle change that even some political junkies won’t process: They will shift from reporting results of registered voters to only those most likely to vote in the 2014 election — a.k.a. “likely voters.” For those who follow polling closely the distinction […] Read more »
‘It’s the Economy, Stupid’ Doesn’t Mean GDP
The U.S. economy had a very good second quarter. According to the Commerce Department, gross domestic product grew at a 4% clip from April to June. And in a midterm year like 2014 that means … probably not much. The oft-repeated axiom in U.S. politics that “It’s the economy, stupid,” […] Read more »