The past few weeks haven’t produced much good news for Democrats’ hopes of retaining the Senate. … Kansas, however, had become an under-the-radar opportunity for Democrats. The Republican incumbent there, Pat Roberts, barely survived his primary and has extremely low approval ratings. Several recent polls had put the race in […] Read more »
How Latinos will matter in the midterm election
… In U.S. House races, the Democratic Party’s poor recruiting and fundraising efforts in districts that were narrowly carried by Republicans in 2012 and have significant shares of voting-age Latinos means that many potentially vulnerable GOP House incumbents are getting a pass this cycle. As a consequence, the influence of […] Read more »
A Tale Of Two Primaries In Massachusetts
Two groups of Massachusetts voters will head to the polls Tuesday to choose the Democratic and Republican nominees for governor. But the voters who turn out for these pivotal contests look very different than the electorate likely to turn out for the Nov. 4 general election. CONT. Steve Koczela & […] Read more »
Senate Control May Turn on Who’s More Unloved, Obama or G.O.P.
With the campaign season officially begun, Republicans hold a modest but clear advantage in the fight for control of the Senate. … Whether the Democrats can keep the game close to the end, or whether the Republicans will build an even larger advantage, turns on one big question about the […] Read more »
FiveThirtyEight’s Senate Model Is Back And It Gives Republicans The Edge
The FiveThirtyEight Senate model is launching Wednesday. We’ll be rolling it out in stages, with additional features, functionality and further methodological detail. We’ll also be unveiling our new set of pollster ratings and publicly releasing our database of all the polls used to calculate them. So there’s a lot more […] Read more »
2014: A look at the basics
As we begin the countdown to Election Day, where do we stand on the fundamentals, those structural factors that impact every race on the ballot? CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill Read more »