As a key U.S. Senate race unfolds in Iowa, President Barack Obama’s declining job approval rating may be one factor making it such a close battle. Obama’s approval rating among Iowans for the first half of the year stood at 38%, five percentage points below the national average and the […] Read more »
If GOP Can’t Win Swing States Now, How Can They Win Them in 2016?
From the ashes of one election come the sparks for the next. And, while I’m not wishing away 2014, I do think we’ll be spending more time than usual dissecting these midterm results. Specifically, we’ll be looking at the challenges awaiting the GOP going into 2016. While the key to […] Read more »
Upheaval In The Kansas Senate Race Is Making Our Chart Kinky
If you’ve revisited our Senate forecast landing page, you may have noticed something a little different. The probability distribution showing how many Senate seats the Republicans might end up with is no longer a nice bell-shape-type curve. Instead, it has a kink. What’s going on here? Why are Republicans more […] Read more »
Take Two, Drew! Linzer Unveils His Senate Forecast Model
Longtime readers will know that I was a big fan of Drew Linzer’s 2012 presidential forecast model contained at his Votamatic website, and not just because he was kind enough fly out here to give a talk to Middlebury students during the middle of the presidential campaign. Linzer’s model, you […] Read more »
Pat Roberts is the Most Vulnerable Republican Senator in the Country
Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts survived a competitive Republican primary but it looks like his toughest race is still to come. Democrat Chad Taylor dropped out of the race on Wednesday leaving independent Greg Orman as the senator’s main challenger and completely changing the math of the race. A spectacular confluence […] Read more »
Battleground 2014: The Stage Is Set for a Direction-Changing November Election
Ed Goeas & Brian Nienaber, The Tarrance Group As we enter the last sprint of this election cycle, Republicans are in position to make impressive gains this November. The GOP has intense and motivated supporters; the President’s image continues to hover at all-time lows; the political environment clearly favors Republicans; […] Read more »