The FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast model launched earlier this month. Right now, it shows Republicans with about a 53 percent chance of picking up the Senate next year. We owe you a lot more detail about how that forecast is calculated and how it might change between now and Nov. 4 […] Read more »
D.C. mayor: Poll gives Bowser double-digit lead but reveals that vulnerabilities remain
Democratic nominee Muriel E. Bowser has emerged from a contentious summer on the campaign trail with a hefty advantage in the race for D.C. mayor, holding a double-digit lead over two independent rivals, according to a new NBC4/Washington Post/Marist poll. CONT. Mike DeBonis & Scott Clement, Washington Post Read more »
What Could Go Wrong for GOP?
At this point, most independent political analysts are giving the edge to Republicans in this year’s fight for majority status in the U.S. Senate. … Should Republicans come up short—remembering of course that this very thing happened in 2012, when what could have been a three-seat net gain for the […] Read more »
Video: Will the GOP take control of the Senate?
Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium discusses Senate poll trends with Michael Smerconish. Read more »
Nate Silver vs. Sam Wang on Midterm Polling
On Monday, Nate Silver was on the show to discuss FiveThirtyEight’s midterm forecast, which favors the GOP, and dismissed Sam Wang’s forecast heavily favoring Democrats. We follow up with Sam Wang on his model, and what leads different statistical wranglers to come to such different conclusions. The Brian Lehrer Show […] Read more »
Democrats Are Seeing More Daylight in Path to Senate Control
A few months ago, the Democratic path to a Senate majority looked long and arduous. It has started to look easier. CONT. Nate Cohn, New York Times Read more »